New Polling Shows Huge Support Among Republicans, including Trump’s Base, for Border Security/Dreamer Protection Deal

NEW YORK, NY – Today, New American Economy and TargetPoint Consulting released new polling showing that Republican and conservative voters, including Trump’s base, overwhelmingly support a deal in Congress for increased border security in exchange for a path to citizenship for Dreamers. The results show that a deal in Congress would not hurt Republicans in their 2018 primaries and is overwhelmingly favored by many of the key voting blocs – young voters, college-educated female voters, and faith voters, among others – that Republicans will need to win in both the midterms and 2020.

“When it comes to a deal on Dreamers and the border, if the president leads and puts his shoulder behind it, our research concludes that his base will follow him almost universally,” said Michael Meyers, President of TargetPoint Consulting. “Add in support from the key demographic groups the GOP needs to stay competitive in future elections, from young conservatives and college-educated women, to faith voters and high-income suburbanites,­ and there is more than enough motivation here for Republicans to strike a deal.”

“Pairing border security with a solution for Dreamers makes a lot of sense to the American public,” said John Feinblatt, president of New American Economy. “In fact, support for such a deal runs remarkably deep among the president’s base and Republican voters overall – offering the lawmakers who lead on immigration a low-risk, high-reward proposition this election year.”

Key findings from the research include:

• There is strong support among conservatives – including Trump’s base – for a deal that would increase border security and protect Dreamers.
  • 80 percent of conservative and Republican voters support a deal to increase border security in exchange for protections for Dreamers. Just 13 percent oppose the deal.
  • 86 percent of Trump base voters – defined as those who voted for Trump, approve of him today, support a Republican congressional candidate in the 2018 elections, and identify as Republican – support a deal to increase border security in exchange for protections for Dreamers. Just 10 percent oppose the deal.
• Even among voters who oppose the Dreamers/border security deal, the clear majority would not change their vote over it.
  • 2018 Midterms: Just one percent of conservative and Republican voters and less than one percent of Trump base voters would not support any Republican in the 2018 congressional elections if their Republican representative supported a deal.
  • Just 12 percent of conservative and Republican voters and 11 percent of Trump base voters would support a different Republican in a 2018 GOP primary if their representative supported a border security/Dreamer protection deal.
  • 2020 Presidential: 95 percent of Trump base voters would still vote for Trump if he supported the deal. Just three percent of Trump base voters would support another Republican in the 2020 primary if the President supported it. Less than one percent would vote for a Democrat.
• Across the board, support for Dreamers and a Dreamer/Wall deal is particularly strong among key conservative voting blocs.
  • Among white working-class male conservative and Republican voters, 81 percent support citizenship for Dreamers. 75 percent support a deal to increase border security in exchange for protections for Dreamers.
  • Among young conservative and Republican voters (ages 18-34), 88 percent support citizenship for Dreamers. 79 percent support a deal to increase border security in exchange for protections for Dreamers.
  • Among conservative and Republican female voters, 83 percent support citizenship for Dreamers. 81 percent support a deal to increase border security in exchange for protections for Dreamers.
  • Among conservative and Republican college-educated women, 85 percent support citizenship for Dreamers. 82 percent support a deal to increase border security in exchange for protections for Dreamers.
  • Among faith voters, defined as frequent church attendees, 80 percent want to give citizenship for Dreamers and 78 percent support a deal to increase border security in exchange for protections for Dreamers.
  • Among high-income conservative and Republican voters, 85 percent want citizenship for Dreamers. 84 percent support a deal to increase border security in exchange for protections for Dreamers.
  • Among lower-income conservative and Republican voters, defined as those with a family income less than $40,000 per year, 75 percent want citizenship for Dreamers. 75 percent support a deal to increase border security in exchange for protections for Dreamers.

This national survey collected live interviews among 800 Republican and conservative-leaning Independent voters pulled from a listed sample of registered voters and was conducted from February 15th – February 18th, 2018. These voters are defined in our sample as Registered Republicans, Republican primary voters or conservative-leaning, independent voters. The subgroup of conservatives and Republicans are voters who met one of the following criteria: voted for Donald Trump in the election, currently approve of President Trump, support a Republican congressional candidate in the 2018 elections, or have partisan identification as a Republican or lean Republican. The subgroup of Trump base voters contains voters who met all the following criteria: voted for Donald Trump in the election, currently approve of President Trump, currently support a Republican congressional candidate in the 2018 elections, and identify as a Republican or lean Republican. The margin of error was +/- 3.46%.

See the full results here.