0% 26% 100% 44%

Between now and 2020, as many as
25.6 million Hispanic and Asian voters
could join the U.S. electorate.

see report

How will these voters impact election results? That depends on how many of these
individuals come out to vote-and how successful each party is at earning their support.

Build a scenario to
see how these
new voters impact
presidential elections.

  1. Select election year
  2. Select voter turnout
  3. Select percent of Hispanics and Asians supporting the GOP

    4. Level of support for
    Mitt Romney in 2012.

    Level of
    support for
    George W. Bush
    in 2004.

Percent
margin of
victory
for Dems
or GOP

Changes to 2020 Arizona
Asian & Hispanic Population

Will turn 18

Will naturalize

Unregistered voters

Simulated 2020
Election Result

Net new voters

Obama 2012 win/loss margin

Estimated
Margin

%

Explore total number of new voters

In 16 states, there could be more new Hispanic and Asian voters by 2020 than decided the 2012 presidential result in the state.

About The Data

The new Hispanic and Asian voters detailed here are made up of newly naturalized immigrants, Hispanic and Asian citizens turning age 18, and individuals who were eligible but not registered to vote in 2012.

In the customizable scenario, "LOW" turnout is equivalent to the Hispanic and Asian voter turnout in 2012 and "HIGH" turnout is equivalent to the white voter turnout in 2012.

The slider reflects the national level of support for Republicans in 2016 or 2020. Our model assigns varying levels of support to individual states, based on how much more or less they supported Republicans than the national average in 2012.